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15. Segwits and Forks
Enhance and control Another important thing about which we talked earlier was that you need to have your project completed in two to three months. So what does this translate to? That you must have some mechanism in place to monitor the progress of your project and determine whether it is proceeding as planned. That's where you need some project management tools. Let's look at three important tools here. These three tools are the Gantt Chart Critical Path Methodology (CPM), the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), and the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). CPM and Part are related to each other. We will see those. But before we talk about CPM and Perth, let's start with a Gantt chart. So, a Gantt chart is a type of bar chart, and these bars are horizontal bars. This illustrates the starting and finishing points of activities. So let's quickly look at one example here. Let's say we want to plan for our project, which we want to complete in three months. And three months is equal to three times four, or approximately twelve weeks. So twelve weeks is the time you want to have your project completed.
So what you do in a Gantt chart is on the horizontal axis. You have time. So consider this to be time zero, the first week, the second week, and the third week. Let's say this is week twelve, and you want to complete your project. Now, broadly speaking, there are five activities here, or five stages of the project: define, measure, analyse, improve, and control. So, let us draw these, call them the defined phase. We want to complete the definition phase in four weeks. We want to give it enough time so that we have the problem statement very clearly defined. We have all the support, including management support. So we'd like to set aside some time for that. So let's say we plan this for four weeks. So this is my definition. Then I want to start the measuring phase. So, once the define is finished, do I begin? Probably no. We can have some overlap so that by the time all these documents get signed or something, we can start the measurement phase along with that.
So, instead of starting from here, at the end of the day phase, we begin our measurement phase a week earlier, say. So at week number three, we also start the measuring phase also. So this is M, and let's say it takes three or four weeks as well. So the length of the bar represents the number of weeks. So these are four weeks. So this is also four weeks. So, measure, phase, analyze, improve, and control. So these are another three stages. So let's say we have decided that the analysis phase is something we want to start only after completing the measurement phase. So once the measurement phase is complete, we will start the analysis phase. The analysing phase will be shorter—say, one or two weeks. And then we will do the improved phase.
The improved phase will start once we have completed the analysis phase. And we want to keep some overlap between the control phase and the improvement phase. So this is how we will draw these horizontal bars in the Gantt chart. So this is simple; this is planning. Then, as we progress, we darken or shade these bars in accordance with the progress. So let's say we are in week number three. At week number three, we are reviewing the progress of this. So what you will do is you will put a line here. So let's put a dotted line here with a different color. So this is week number three, and we are reviewing the progress of the project. So at week number three, we should have completed, let's say, 75% of the defined phase, and we might or might not have started the major phase. So let's say at week number three, we have already completed the defined phase. So that means we are going ahead of schedule. As a result, we darken this. So someone looking at this Gantt chart can say that now you are in week three and you have already done the job that you are supposed to do in week number four. And let's say we were so lucky that we got all the approvals and everything was going so smoothly that we even completed the measurement phase.
Also, half of the activities that we planned So we'll darken this bar as well, indicating that half of the measurements-related activities have also been completed. So this is how you show progress based on time and keep track of your project. So this is a simple tool; either you can use Excel to make these charts or you can even hand-draw these charts because these are simple charts. So on the next slide, I have a sample Gantt chart, which is available in Microsoft Excel. So let's quickly look at that as well. So here is a Gantt chart, or the project planner.
So this template is available in Microsoft Excel as a default template. So you can choose this template and start filling it in here. So here you have activity 12345. You can change these to suit your needs. Let's say activity number one is defined. So you can change this to define; this becomes measure, analyze, improve, and control. Or maybe, if you want to add some other activities, you can add those. You can say that when you plan to start, when you plan to finish, what's the actual status, what's the duration, and what's the completion status? So this will automatically give you the gas chart, which is already darkened, indicating that these have been achieved. So this is something you can use. So this was the Gantt chart.
16. Objective – When is mining needed and when it is not
The Gantt chart was simple because this was just showing a few activities in the form of VAR. What happens in CPM is something similar to this, but it is a little bit more complex. So what we have here is a list of all the activities that you need to complete for the project. This is something that we did in Gantt charts as well. There was also a list of activities that needed to be completed. Here we have the duration of each activity—how much time each activity will take. We had similar things in a Gantt chart, and we also had how much time each of these activities was supposed to take. Dependencies were missing from the Gantt Chart.
What is the dependency between activities? You can consider this the sequence in which activities have to be done. For example, if you are constructing a house, you must first construct the foundation and then only the walls. You cannot make walls for the house without building the foundation. As a result, there is a requirement that the foundation be ready before beginning the activity of building walls for the house. We will talk about this in more detail as we go through this lecture. And then in CPM, there are logical endpoints such as starting point endpoints and deliverable milestones. So you have some endpoints in the CPM, or critical path method. Earlier, when I talked about an example of having a foundation to start a wall, that is something that is called a "predecessor" and "successor" in CPM.
So there is one activity that is the predecessor, and another activity that is the successor. The foundation is the predecessor in the case of a foundation and a wall. Before erecting walls, the foundation should be laid. That is a successor activity. So a successor activity is an activity whose start or finish is controlled by the start or finish of another activity. As a result, you cannot begin erecting walls until the foundation has been laid. So this is an important concept that you need to understand: activities have predecessors and successors. Let's take a simple example here, and with that, we will try to understand the CPM. So, here is a list of activities, ABCD and E.
And each of these activities needs a certain amount of time. So let's say activity A needs two days to complete. Activity B needs four days, C needs one day, D needs two days, and E needs seven days. So these are the durations of these five activities. But then these five activities depend on each other. Let's start with a It doesn't depend on anything. So that means A is the starting point, and activity B depends on A. That means you cannot start activity B. Still, you have completed activity number A. The same thing is true for C as well. So you cannot start C until you have completed Activity A.
And if we go to the last item on this list, which is activity number E, Activity number E depends on two other activities being completed before it can be started. E can only be started once activities B and C have been completed. Now how do we represent this in the form of a picture graph or the CPM? Let's do that. So let us begin with a starting point. So let's say this is my starting point. So here I start. The first thing will be doing activity number A. So I put an arrow here, and I make activity A. Activity A takes two days. So I put two on top of this. Now coming to activity number B, activity number B depends on A, and I can see that C also depends on A. So after completing A, you can do two activities, B and C.
So let's put both of these here: this is activity B, and this is activity C. Both of these (B and C) depend on A. B takes four days. So let's put four here. C takes one day. So let's put one here. Now, moving on to the next activity, D, Activity D depends on B. So, activity number D is dependent on B and takes two days to complete. Coming to activity number E, which depends on B and C both, So here is my activity number E, which depends on B and C both, and that's it. As a result, we put both of these activities at the end. So this is how you can draw the network diagram if you are given a table of activities, their durations, and their dependencies. Having done this, let's move on to the next slide. This is what we did earlier. This was exactly what we did manually using the pen. Now what do we do next? So this is now much larger.
I can do a lot of things with this, so let's start doing a few things with it. So here are some thoughts on these few numbers. Let's understand these numbers. First. Two important numbers I have put here are "early start" and "early finish." What is the earliest time an activity can start, and what is the earliest time an activity can finish? Let's start with a So activity number A can start on day zero. So once we start the project, activity number A can start. And this is what I have put here as an early start. So the early start for activity number A is day zero since activity A takes two days to complete. So, at the very least, this will be completed on day number two. And that is exactly what I did here, I finished early. So I have put "early start" and "early finish" for activity number A. Now when can we start activity number B? Can we start activity number B on day zero? No, you cannot start activity number B on day zero because activity B depends on A.
When activity a is finished, only you can begin activity b. So Activity A gets completed on Day 2, which is the early finish of Activity A. That will be the early start for activity number B, as well as the same for activity number C. So on day two, both B and C can start. B takes four days to complete. So that means the early finish for activity number B will be on day six. Similarly, for C, C takes one day to complete. It started on day two. So, at the very least, this will be completed on day three. So this is an early finish for activity number C. That was easy. When it comes to activity number D, it is dependent on B. So once I have completed B on day six, that means I can start activity number D on day six. It takes two days to complete. That means it will finish on day eight at the earliest. Here we'll be thinking a little bit about when we can start activity number E at the earliest.
E depends on two things, B and C, B gets finished on day number six, and C gets finished on day number three. Can I start activity number E on day three? No, because it depends on activity B as well. So both of these activities need to be completed. That means at the earliest, I can start activity number E on day number six. So this becomes an early start for activity number E. Activity number E takes seven days to complete. That means six plus seven is equal to 13. On day 13, activity number E will be completed. And what does this mean? that on day 13, my project will be completed at the earliest. If everything goes as planned, I should be able to finish this project by day 13, if not sooner. So this was going forward. Now there is a backward loop as well. And as we do these calculations, you will appreciate what we are trying to understand here. So let's do the backward path as well.
On the backward path, I have a few more numbers at the bottom. Let's understand these numbers. So these numbers are late starts and late finishes. As you can see here, there was a late start and a late finish. The top two numbers are early start and early finish. We have already done that. So now, to do late starts and late finishes, you go backwards. That means what we learned earlier was that on day 13, the project will be completed. Here we have a late start and a late finish. As we go further into this, you will see that there are some activities that, if we delay them, really don't harm the project's completion. You can have some activities that you can delay, but some activities you cannot delay. And that is the whole purpose of doing this backward calculation. So now, if we plan that this project needs to be completed on day 13, then what is the latest finish for these two activities? Activity numbers D and E both need to be finished on day 13.
So day number 13's latest finish for activity D is 13. The latest finish for activity number E is also 13, and when they can start at the latest, simply subtract the duration of the activity to get the latest start. So in the case of D, 13 minus two will give you eleven. In the case of E, 13 minus seven will give you six. In terms of activity number C, when can we expect it to be completed at the latest? So what is the latest start for activity number E will be the late finish for activity number C. So this is six. So this will also become six. So the late finish for activity number C is day number six, and from the late finish to the latest art, if you want to calculate, this will be the late finish minus the duration of the activity one day, which will give you the late start. So, at the very least, this activity should begin on day five. We now come to activity number B, which is slightly complex because it leads to activities D and E.
So at the latest, D needs to start on day number eleven. You can delay this activity till day number eleven, but activity number E is a late start on the sixth day. So that means you need to finish activity number B on day number six, not day number eleven. So, if you finish this activity B on day eleven, you will undoubtedly be delayed because eleven plus seven equals 18 days for the project to be completed. So that's not the choice. So what you need to have is the latest finish of activity number B on day number six. The latest finish minus the number of days, which is four, will give you the latest start for activity number B. Similarly, we have two late starts for activity number A, a two-day late start for B, and a fifth-day late start for activity number C. But then you need to complete activity number A at the latest by day number two. So that becomes a late finish for activity number A, and a late start becomes zero.
So this is how you fill in all these numbers. Once you fill in these numbers, you will get some interesting information out of this chart. Let's look at that and see what we get out of this chart after putting so many numbers in. What do we get out of this? We will get two things out of this: the float and the critical path. Float is the amount of time a particular activity can be delayed without affecting the whole project. Without delaying the project that's on hold, we want to find out where the float is. Some activities will include float, while others will not. So, once we know which activities have float, we can postpone them. If there is a problem, a labour shortage, or anything else, you can postpone those activities that have float. So let's say if an activity has a float of three days, then you can delay that activity by three days.
The second important thing that you will learn from that chart is the critical path. All activities with zero float are included in the critical path. So if there is a zero float, that means you really cannot delay those activities. Because if you put off those activities, your project will suffer. So we'll get these two results from all of the numbers we calculated earlier. So let's go back and look at those numbers here. So here are those numbers. So what I've done here is, as the first thing I've done, I have calculated the float value for each of these activities. And how do you calculate the float value?
The floating value is calculated as late start minus early start. So this is essentially a late start minus an early start. In the case of activity number D, the difference between this and this that is float is eleven minus six, which equals five. So either you can use late starts minus early starts or you could use late finishes minus early finishes. Both will give you the same number. So in activity number D, the float is five days. That means if there is a problem or a reason to delay something, delay activity number D by five days. It will not be a problem. Similarly, activity number C has a float of three days. You can delay this activity by three days without affecting the project. The project will still get completed in 13 days even if this activity gets delayed by three days.
Activity number c: other activities If you notice that activity A has a zero float, activity B has a zero float, and activity E has a zero float, One thing we discovered is that two activities have float. You can delay them. And we found out about the critical path. The critical path consists of all the activities that have zero float. So let's look at that. So here is my critical path. All these items, all these activities that are golden in color—the boxes with the golden boxes—these are the activities that are on the critical path. So B and E are on the critical path. So, if you ask which activities are on the critical path, the answer will be "all of them." You cannot delay A, B, or E without affecting or delaying the project in total. So this is vast.
17. Genesis Mining
Now coming to this third part of the project planning, which is part of the programme evaluation and review technique, The only difference between Part and CPM is that in Part we acknowledge that there is some time variation in the completion of each activity. So what we assume is that CPM Wall activity number B will take four days. And that's what we said there—that activity B takes four days. But what we understand in part is that these four days are not fixed. These four days could change depending on a variety of factors, including people's efficiency and labour availability.
Whatever the case may be, there are a variety of factors that will affect this activity's ability to be completed in four days. There is a chance that this might be completed before four days or that it might take more than four days. This is the primary distinction between Part and CPM. Part estimates each activity using a probabilistic approach. When I say probabilistic, that means that instead of saying that activity number B takes four days, So what we will say here is that, most likely, we will complete this activity in four days. So four days is the most likely value; four days is the most likely value.
And then we have some optimistic value and some pessimistic value. So, rather than putting a single number for the duration of the activity, these three things are combined for each of these activities. Optimistic is when everything goes fine and things are good. Then, at best, this could take two days. The most optimistic value is two days. If everything goes as planned and you have all of the necessary resources, you should be able to complete this activity in two days. Pessimistic means something when things don't go well. That's the pessimistic value. Let's say the pessimistic value for this activity is ten days. Maybe I'm too pessimistic, but let's take the pessimistic value of ten days: if things go wrong, this might take up to ten days to complete. Now that we have these numbers, what do we do with them?
So let's look at the formula, which is here on the next slide. So what we said earlier was that for activity number B, the most likely value was four days. The optimistic value was two days. The pessimistic value was ten days. Now, based on these two formulas, we can find out what the expected time is for this activity. B is the activity. And in this case, the formula is optimistic plus four multiplied by most likely plus pessimistic value divided by six. So here's an example: the optimistic value is two. So, to put it simply, two plus the most likely value equals four. So four multiplied by four is equal to 16, plus the pessimistic value is ten. Let's put it at ten divided by six. So this will give us twelve plus sixteen, which is 28 divided by six. So this is the expected value. So this will come out to be 466 days.
So instead of four days, The expected time for this activity is 4.66 days. And then, once we have variation, this will have some standard deviation as well. We will learn about these things as we move further into the measurement and analysis phase, where we will be talking about statistics and the standard deviation there. However, for the time being, the standard deviation for this activity will be pessimistic error minus optimistic. The number ten represents pessimism. Minus optimistic is two divided by six. This becomes eight x six, or 133. This is the standard deviation for this activity.
18. Objective – Byzantine Fault Tolerance
So here, if we look at the list of these topics, this was the project charter. This included the project score, project matrix, and project planning tool as well. And when I say project planning tool, in the project planning tool, we talk about the grant chart, which is generally included as a part of the project charter. But then, in project planning, we talked about PPM and CPM. So, let's start with the CPM part. We also talk about these two things, which generally do not form part of the project charter. And if the project is complex, these are created later.
Now, coming to this fifth topic, which is project documentation, You must document any project you undertake, as well as the reasons for doing so. We will talk about that as well. But first, consider the typical documentation required for a Six Sigma project.
The first important thing we need to understand is that the level of documentation will depend on the complexity of the project. So, if you have a project that is very complex, crosses multiple disciplines, and has complex processes, you will need more documentation, data collection, and data analysis. So there will be more documentation if the project is complex. But if your project is slightly simpler in nature, then your project documentation could be limited to the project charter and, let's say, the final presentation only.
Now let's look at some of the key documents that could become part of this Six Sigma project. With the project charter, we begin a Six Sigma project. And we earlier said that this is the contract based on which we start working on the Six Sigma project. As a result, the project charter is an important document in any Six Sigma project. Then we will have a number of working documents where we will collect data, do analysis, and create an action plan. So all those things will be part of a working document that will be created as part of the Six Sigma project.
Six Sigma projects pass through a number of gap reviews. So, as we talked earlier, the Six Sigma project goes through five stages: define, measure, analyze, improve, and control. Once we create a charter, it's not necessary that this project go ahead and go through all these phases of Six Sigma.
At every stage, there is a review to see whether this project needs to go further or not or whether there is any need to refine the project. So once you have done the defined phase, let's say, before you go to the measurement stage, you need to have a gate review where management will look at the project and decide whether there is any point in going further into the project.
Or maybe it's time to stop this project, or maybe it's time to redefine the project, change the boundaries, and change the scope. So those gap review reports could also become part of your Six Sigma project documentation.
And then another important thing will be the final presentation or the final deliverable that you give as part of the Six Sigma project, which could be a summary of the results and recommendations that you have made. And this could be in the form of a story board where, on a single sheet of paper, you might summarise this whole Six Sigma project.
19. Objective – Consensus among Blockchains
Take some risks. Identifying those risks and addressing them is important for the success of the project. And this is the 6th topic in project management basics, which is project risk analysis.
If you remember earlier when we talked about the design for Six Sigma, one of the topics was FMEA, or failure mode and effects analysis. So we discussed one sample FMEA, in which we had a perfume bottling plant and wanted to create an FMEA for it. And as you can see on this slide, this is something that we have already covered. This was a type of risk management tool.
Here, what we did was try to identify what could go wrong. And based on that, we were taking some actions. And to prioritise the actions that we need to take, we calculated the RPN value, or the risk priority number. As a result, we decided to take action on all items with a higher RPM or a higher risk priority number. So this was one tool for risk management. Conventionally, if you look at other projects, there is a set approach for risk management. Let's quickly run through that risk management approach as well, just to give you a good understanding of how risks are managed on any project. So here are five steps in risk management:
The first step is to plan for risk management. Here in this section, you do all the planning for how the risk management process will work, which basically addresses how these next four stages will be done: how we will identify risks, how we will analyse risks, how we will plan risk responses, and how we will monitor and control risks. So this was the first part, which is planning risk management. After you've planned risk management, the next step is to identify risks through brainstorming.
Let's say in your case of a Six Sigma project, the team and the management together, or maybe just the team, can sit down and identify the risks to your project's success and what could go wrong that would lead to your project's failure. So you identify all those risks, you list them down, and the document on which you list these risks is called a risk register. So this was step number two. Step three is to assess the risks you need to assess and determine which ones are more important and thus require priority. So you do that when you analyse risk.
You can plan your risk response after you have analysed risk and identified the critical risks that require action. So there are various responses with regard to risk, and we will talk about those. And once you have planned the risk response, the next step would be monitoring the risk register and making sure that everything goes as per plan. And if there's any action required, the action is taken, and roles are defined.
That comes under monitoring and controlling risks now. Here on this chart, you see two of these boxes, which are in golden color, that are titled "analyse risks" and "plan risk response." So these are the topics that I want to discuss in a little more detail. Let's start by analysing the risks. So, once you've identified all of the risks and recorded them on the risk register, the next step is to analyse those analyses to determine which are more important. There are two approaches for risk analysis. One is qualitative risk analysis, and the second is quantitative risk analysis. Quantitative means quantity.
The quantitative analysis is time-consuming and detailed. And this requires a lot of analytics. Expected monetary risks are examples of quantitative risk analysis. Value analysis, Monte Carlo analysis, and decision trees These are complex calculations. We will not be discussing these in this course. We are talking about qualitative risk analysis. Qualitative is a rough risk analysis or a subjective risk analysis, which you can do quickly and easily. And for that, the tool that is used is called a probability and impact matrix. We will look at this matrix on the next slide. So let's look at that. So here is the probability and impact matrix for this.
What you do is examine each of the risks identified in the risk register to determine the likelihood of that risk occurring and the impact if that risk occurred. Let's take a simple example of an earthquake. So if you have a plant that is manufacturing something and you had a brainstorming session, you listed down a number of risks, and one of the risks was an earthquake. If an earthquake happens, that is going to destroy your company or your factory. What is the likelihood of an earthquake occurring, given that it is a risk? The probability of that happening is low, or, let's say, very low. And what is the impact of that? impact is very high. If that happens, it will have a big impact.
So a very high impact is here. So we end up here saying that this is a medium-level risk. The matrix that you see here has five scales, starting from very high, high, medium, low, and very low. This could be in terms of one to five. This could be a number ranging from one to ten. Whatever form you give this matrix, this is what it will do. It will summarise whether your risk is high, medium, or low, depending on two things: probability and impact. Now, if this is a medium risk, how do you address this risk? One of the ways to address this risk would be to take out insurance. We will talk about actions to be taken to address the risks.
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